From Majdal Shams to Beirut and Tehran: the rising conflict between Israel, Iran and its main proxy Hezbollah

Since October 8th, Hezbollah has been carrying out attacks on northern Israel, significantly escalating tensions in the region. This wave of violence reached a devastating peak on July 27th, when Hezbollah fired rockets at the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, resulting in the death of 12 children on a football field.

The Druze community living in Majdal Shams originally comes from Syria and has a fascinating history. They are a unique religious minority that emphasizes the oneness of God and the importance of truthfulness, moral integrity, and spiritual knowledge. Historically, they have been one of the most well-integrated religious and social minorities in Israel, despite some issues with the current government.

The explosion at the Majdal Shams football field caused by the impact of a rocket launched by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon.

Three days later: the IDF strikes Beirut

This attack clearly could not go unanswered. On July 30th, Israel responded to the killing of the 12 children in Majdal by targeting and eliminating Shukr, Hezbollah’s second-in-command after Nasrallah (the head of the terrorist organization) in Beirut. Hezbollah immediately announced they would respond to the attack when they deemed it appropriate, which was widely expected, as this is how wars work in the Middle East.

Tehran: from TV series to real life

Little did we know that what happened on July 30th was just the beginning. The next morning, Israel woke up to the news that Haniyeh, a senior Hamas leader, was killed in Tehran while visiting the city for the swearing-in of the new Iranian President, Pezeshkian, who took office after former President Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May this year. Iran, like Hezbollah, immediately declared it would strike Israel in response, even though Israel has yet to claim responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination.

For weeks, Israeli citizens have been waiting for the retaliation. Some speculated a joint attack by Iran and Hezbollah, while others thought the attacks would occur at different times.

Hezbollah goes first

Eventually, Hezbollah launched its first attack against Israel in response to Shukr's killing on August 25th, ruling out a coordinated strike and leaving people awaiting a possible attack from Iran.

Specifically, on the night of August 25, the IDF identified Hezbollah’s massive preparations for a large-scale attack against Israel, with thousands of rockets ready to be launched, including towards Tel Aviv, at 5 a.m. In response, the IDF conducted a preemptive strike in southern Lebanon, destroying most of Hezbollah's prepared armaments. Only 320 rockets and drones managed to enter Israeli territory on August 25th, most of which were intercepted by the Iron Dome.

Beyond Israel, beyond Gaza

Even if we still don’t know exactly what the consequences of these clashes will be, it is certain that this conflict has now expanded far beyond Israel and Gaza, with many more actors involved, making the dynamics much more delicate and complicated: on one side, Israel, allied with America and major European countries and supported by Sunni Arab nations; on the other side, Iran and its proxies, longtime enemies of America and Israel, promoting an Islamic world. Essentially, it’s the West versus radical Islam—nothing new.

A war of interests

The war that has been fought from July 27th to today, however, has been more of a diplomatic, media, and psychological battle than a conventional armed conflict. Yes, Hezbollah, which has been bombarding northern Israel continuously since October 8, claimed it would start targeting civilians within the country rather than just military bases (events that actually happen in Israel daily). Yes, Iran claimed it would have attacked Israel more forcefully than it did in its last attack, which occurred in April 2024. But so far, weeks after Shukr’s death in Beirut and Haniyeh’s in Tehran, all that Israelis have received is a thwarted Hezbollah attack, a lot of anxiety, zero missiles from Iran, and the usual daily dose of drones and rockets from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Of course, it's impossible to predict what to expect when dealing with terrorists. The chances of a real military attack remain high, but its scope seems to change daily based on the current interests of the involved countries. Probably nobody wants to engage in a full-blown war—too many countries and organizations are involved. Even if most of them likely want to fight, they also don’t want to jeopardize their interests in the region, which leaves them uncertain about what to do.

America

America, always opposed to the Iranian regime, wants to show it’s stronger than them, and is achieving this by positioning aircraft, ships, and weapons around Israel, almost suggesting that the U.S. isn’t just interested in “saving Israel” at this stage, but is more focused on showcasing its power and uniting moderate Arab countries to form an infallible coalition.

Iran

Iran, despite suggesting an impending attack, now has a “more moderate” president who, although lacking decision-making power as it’s held by the Supreme Leader Khamenei, is trying to deter any overly aggressive attack on Israel—as desired by Khamenei. Iran is indeed a fully-fledged state, not a territory governed by a terrorist organization, and President Pezeshkian knows well that any active confrontation with Israel and America would severely harm the country's society and economy.

Hezbollah

And let’s not forget Hezbollah in Lebanon, the main Iranian proxy led by the infamous Nasrallah who, despite claiming to have been attacking Israel for months in support of Gaza, actually has no interest in supporting Gazans and has other goals in the region, including the conquest of Galilee in Israel and the subsequent elimination of the State and of the heretical Western world. Despite Hezbollah being a massive terrorist group that influences some Lebanese communities, Lebanon remains a state with its own government and economy, which would be utterly destroyed in a total war with Israel. The Lebanese government is putting significant pressure against excessive attacks by Hezbollah, aware that its economy and society could not handle the aftermath of a war.

Essentially, at this stage, it seems that Iran (and its proxies) on one side and America on the other are using Israel as a battlefield to fight for their own interests.

It should also not be forgotten that the hostage deal talks between Israel and Hamas are still constantly being developed, the only spark of hope for seeing a pause in the war.

To fight or not to fight?

In conclusion, the overall impression is that everyone’s talking a lot, but everyone’s afraid of compromising their own interests in the region. Many people are quite positive there will be an Iranian attack eventually, but it keeps getting postponed because no one knows precisely how to act. What can be said without doubt, however, is that Iran and its proxies have won the psychological war they've been waging for weeks:

Nasrallah's threats to the Israeli people, leader of the terrorist group Hezbollah.